A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
